Washington
The US intelligence report once again expressed concern over China’s expansionist policy and its strategic challenge for India. The report said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s defense policy will be focused on strengthening the global leadership, facing China and increasing India’s military capabilities. India considers China its main rival. While Pakistan sees as a limited security problem which can be kept under control.
PLA’s military bases plan, danger bell for India
According to the report, China is considering a plan to establish its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) military base in countries such as Burma (Myanmar), Pakistan and Sri Lanka. If this happens, it can become a serious strategic threat to India because these countries are close to India’s straight sea and land borders.
This ‘String of Pearls’ is considered part of the strategy, under which China wants to increase its influence in the Indian Ocean. According to the US report, this effort reflects China’s intention to increase global military presence and may adversely affect India’s security situation. According to the report, China is being seen as a primary threat in India’s strategic thinking despite cross -border firing and attacks between the forces of India and Pakistan in mid -May 2024.
India is giving priority to bilateral defense partnerships in the Indian Ocean region to balance the influence of China and strengthen the global leadership role, including military exercises, training, arms sales and exchange of information. India has also increased tripartite participation in the Indo-Pacific sector and is playing an active role in multilateral forums like ‘Quad’, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and ASEAN.
Stress reduced from China, but border dispute continues
The report also stated that in the end of October 2024, India and China agreed to retreat from two disputed areas of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh. Although this step reduces the border tension to some extent, the border dispute is still unresolved. Significantly, in 2020, in the same area, there was a clash between the soldiers of the two countries.
India’s missile action on Pak terrorist bases
After the terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir at the end of April 2024, India launched missile attacks on terrorism-related structural bases within Pakistan. This was followed by attacks and heavy firing between the two countries between 7 and 10 May from missiles, drones, and ‘loitoring mons’ (suicidal drones). By May 10, the full ceasefire between the two sides was agreed. According to the report, Pakistan is increasingly modernizing its nuclear weapons and considers India a threat to its existence. This strategy reflects Pakistan’s military thinking and its aggression on the border. The report states that Pakistan is mainly dependent on China’s economic and military generosity. On the strength of resources and technical assistance received from China, Pakistan is not only strengthening its military structure, but is also expanding nuclear capabilities. According to the expert, the China-Pakistan alliance is pose a double threat to India. On the one hand, China’s pressure on LAC and on the other side Pakistan’s atomic and cross -border policy tension is increasing.
Pakistani army focus will be across the border
According to the report, in the coming year, the top priorities of Pakistan’s army will include cross -border clashes with regional neighbors. The border tension with India, terrorism -related activities and aggressive rhetoric about Kashmir are part of this policy. It is especially noteworthy that India has already expressed concern over international forums over the ceasefire violations over Pakistani sponsored terrorism and Local (LOC) on several occasions.
Relationship with Russia maintains, but dependence declined
India will maintain its relationship with Russia by 2025, as it considers them necessary for their economic and defense interests. According to the report, even though the Modi government has cut new purchases of military equipment from Russia, India still has to depend on Russian spare parts to maintain large reserves of Russia-made tanks and fighter jets. This cooperation is also seen as a balance of close relations with China-Russia.
Emphasis on ‘Made in India’, military modernization continues
India will also promote ‘Made in India’ initiative this year, so that the domestic defense industry can be empowered and the concerns of the supply chain can be reduced. India continued modernization of its military capabilities in 2024. India tested the Agni-I Prime Medium Medium Ballistic Missile (MRBM) and Agni-v Multiple Independent Targetible Targetable Retirement Vehicle (MIRV) capable of carrying nuclear weapons. Along with this, India also included its second nuclear power -operated submarine in the Navy, which strengthened its nuclear triad.
